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Land Share
of Real Estate Value (LSREV)
Louis Post: Outlines of Louis F. Post's Lectures, with Illustrative Notes and Charts (1894) — Appendix: FAQ
Charles B. Fillebrown: A Catechism of Natural Taxation, from Principles of Natural Taxation (1917)
Michael Hudson: The Lies of the Land: How and why land gets undervalued Turning land-value gains into
capital gains
Hiding the free lunch Two appraisal methods How land gets a negative value! Where did all the land value go? A curious asymmetry Site values as the economy's "credit sink" Immortally aging buildings Real estate industry's priorities THE FREE LUNCH * Its cost to citizens * Its cost to the economy SUMMARY Hiding the free lunch BAUDELAIRE OBSERVED that the devil wins at the point where he convinces humanity that he does not exist. The Financial, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) sectors seem to have adopted a kindred philosophy that what is not quantified and reported will be invisible to the tax collector, leaving more to be pledged for mortgage credit and paid out as interest. It appears to have worked. To academic theorists as well, breathlessly focused on their own particular hypothetical world, the magnitude of land rent and land-price gains has become invisible. But not to investors. They are out to pick a property whose location value increases faster rate than the interest charges, and they want to stay away from earnings on man-made capital -- like improvements. That's earned income, not the "free lunch" they get from land value increases. Chicago School economists insist that no free lunch exists. But when one begins to look beneath the surface of national income statistics and the national balance sheet of assets and liabilities, one can see that modern economies are all about obtaining a free lunch. However, to make this free ride go all the faster, it helps if the rest of the world does not see that anyone is getting the proverbial something for nothing - what classical economists called unearned income, most characteristically in the form of land rent. You start by using a method of appraising that undervalues the real income producer, land. Here's how it's done. Two appraisal methods PROPERTY IS APPRAISED in two ways. Both start by estimating its market value.
Note that the Fed's land-residual appraisal methods do not acknowledge the possibility that the land itself may be rising in price. Site values appear as the passive derivative, not as the driving force. Yet low-rise or vacant land sites tend to appreciate as much as (or in many cases, even more than) the improved properties around them. Hence this price appreciation cannot be attributed to rising construction costs. If every property in the country were built last year, the problem would be simple enough. The land acquisition prices and construction costs would be recorded, adding up to the property's value. But many structures were erected as long ago as the 19th century. How do we decide how much their value has changed in comparison to the property's overall value? The Federal Reserve multiplies the building's original cost by the rise in the construction price index since its completion. The implication is that when a property is sold at a higher price (which usually happens), it is because the building itself has risen in value, not the land site. However, if the property must be sold at a lower price, falling land prices are blamed. If it is agreed that any explanation of land/building relations should be symmetrical through boom and bust periods alike, then the same appraisal methodology should be able to explain the decline of property values as well as their rise. The methodology should be as uniform and homogeneous as possible. By that, I mean that similar land should be valued at a homogeneous price, and buildings of equivalent worth should be valued accordingly. If these two criteria are accepted, then I believe that economists would treat buildings as the residual, not the land. Yet just the opposite usually is done. ... A curious asymmetry
IF THE APPRAISAL controversy is framed in terms of business cycle analysis, then the statistician finds no reasonable alternative to seeing that when the cycle rises and falls, the difference must be in the land, not buildings. What people are buying are not reproduction costs, whose fluctuations over the course of the credit cycle are relatively minor. They are buying site value, which is in limited supply, akin to a natural monopoly. Most of all, real estate investors and homeowners are buying the right to resell their property as prices are bid up by what they expect to become an increasingly affluent economy fuelled by an abundant supply of mortgage credit. The land-residual approach appears to work as long as a fairly constant proportion of land to buildings is maintained. Statistically, this can occur only when property prices are rising at about the same rate as commodity prices and wages. But business cycles snake around the economy's basic trends, rising steadily and then plunging sharply. This fluctuation is what causes the most serious problems for statisticians. In a thriving real estate market appraisers typically use a rule of thumb in allocating resale prices as between land and buildings to reflect their pre-existing proportions. Buildings typically are assumed to account for between 40 percent and 60 percent of the property's value. As a result, building values are estimated to grow along with a property's overall sales value. This appraisal practice is made to appear plausible as the pace of asset-price inflation tends to go hand in hand with rising construction costs, and hence in the theoretical replacement cost of buildings. As noted, the anomaly occurs when real estate prices fall. Real estate prices are volatile, while construction costs rarely dip more than slightly, if at all. When real estate prices turn down, they often plunge below the reproduction cost of buildings. Hence, the residual ("land") rises and falls much more sharply than do building replacement costs (which are estimated as rising at a fairly steady pace) and overall property values. The result is a curious asymmetry. Building prices seem to be responsible for the rise in real estate prices, while land prices are held responsible for their decline. When the fall in property values intersects the rising reproduction-cost trend, the land residual turns negative. Because this land value often
represents the owner's equity, this
decline may prompt heavily indebted owners to default on their loans
or even to walk away from their property, which reverts to the bank
or other mortgage holder. In this sense the financial system itself
is based largely on real estate, as the economy learned in the
savings and loan (S&L) deposit insurance crisis of the late
1980s. Real estate prices reflect the supply of property (including a
fixed supply of land) as compared with the fluctuating supply of
mortgage credit, which tends to be a function of the economy's
overall liquidity. ... read the
entire article Mason Gaffney: The Taxable Capacity of Land Another attractive feature of land taxation is its interesting positive effect on the economic base of a city. It strengthens it by its tendency to hit absentee owners harder than resident owners. The land fraction in real estate is generally highest in the CBD of any city, so that is a favorite place for absentees to buy and hold. They like the steady income, and the "trophy" quality. The surplus in real estate is what attracts outside buyers, and land is what yields the surplus. About 2/3 of downtown Los Angeles is owned by non-resident aliens, for example. In a more workaday city, Milwaukee, the absentee owners consist of former residents, or their heirs, who grew too rich to abide the harsh winters. Consider the effect on your balance of payments. When you get more tax money from absentees, money that used to flow to Tehran, Zurich, or Palm Beach now flows into your local treasury to pay your local teachers and city workers, and relieve your builders and building managers. In this way taxing land actually acts to undergird the value of its own base. ... Read the whole article Mason Gaffney: Property Tax: Biases and Reforms Priority
#1. Safeguarding the property tax
Priority #2: Enforce Good Laws Reassess Land
Frequently
Priority
#3. De-Balkanize Tax Enclaves Use the Building-Residual Method of Allocating Value Federal Income Taxes A. Rich and Poor
B. Timber and Timberland The
Role of Timber and Timberland
Two More Areas Deserving Attention
Priority
#4. What Tax to Fight First?
Priority #5: Make Landowners Pay Their Taxes Reassess Land Frequently
It is important to assess land for tax purposes often, especially on a rising market. (Landowners will see to it you do so on a falling market.) Land appreciates most years, while buildings depreciate physically every year. Lagging assessments therefore automatically overtax buildings relative to land. New Hampshire Assemblyman Richard Noyes has circulated data on the effect of reassessment in NH. The land fraction of assessed value rises each time there is a reassessment. Keene, NH leads with frequent reassessments, a high fraction of land in the mix, and a strong track record attracting enterprise and jobs. In California, where we used to have good assessment, we now have bad assessment legally mandated by Prop. 13. So long as land is unsold, and/or not newly improved, its assessment rise is capped at 2 percent a year, while market prices soar. Here is one example of the results. This year the Metro Water District of Southern California (MWD) condemned 410 acres for its new Domenigoni Reservoir to expand the system (to accommodate land speculators in the desert boonies). The jury hit them for $43 million, which works out to about $1.95 a square foot. The question occurred to me, how does that square with the assessed value for property taxation? I asked Ted Gwartney, a professional appraiser with the Bank of America, to check the assessed value. It is about seven cents a square foot; The condemnation price, supposedly based on market value, is about 28 times the assessed value. This is not the result of fractional assessment. In California we assess property at 100 percent when land changes ownership or there is a new building. Rather, this is the result of Prop. 13 and its prohibition of market reassessment until land sells. I thought that was startling, but Mr. Gwartney's reaction was, "What else is new?" He, who works with such data every day, has a rule of thumb that market land value in California today is about eight times assessed value. That is important enough to repeat: our assessed land values are routinely at 1/8 of true land value. I wouldn't dare say that on my own authority, but Mr. Gwartney is here to confirm it. He is a veteran appraiser; for many years he was Director of Assessments for the entire Province of British Columbia. Does this help you understand why California landowners are now so slow to adapt to new demands? In 1945 the assessors were building fires under landowners, so they sought new strategies to meet new circumstances. Today there remains a weak incentive to improve to improve property: tax collectors generally cost them money when they make improvements. Sit still, lie low, hire no one, hang on, produce nothing, and your holding costs are negligible. A little of the old magic lingers. In October, 1995, a 225-acre parcel in Corona, the Chase Ranch, was sold to a builder, Coscan Davidson Homes, for building 967 units. The previous owners, "GGS," including a Japanese insurance firm, were "seeking a way out. They were behind in tax payments and GGS was losing its staying power,..." quoth Stephen Doyle, spokesman for the buyer. It is that "staying power" that stifles land use and production. Coscan wants to build immediately. Even so, though, they plan to take five years to build out the project - if everything goes well. This is the new, post-Prop. 13 meaning of "immediately." In spite of extreme underassessment, the assessed value of taxable land in California is 40 percent of the total real estate value. Imagine what it would be if assessed values were real values, "marked-to-market,'' as the law used to stipulate. It would be over 70 percent, as in 1917. "Staying power" would go down; land use, jobs and production would rise. Use the Building-Residual Method of Allocating Value It is equally important to use the "Building-Residual Method" of allocating value between land and buildings. This means you value the land first, as though it were vacant, based on highest and best use. You subtract this land value from the total value of land-&-building as currently improved: the residual, if any, is building value. Valuing one lot or parcel this way, you have information needed for valuing neighboring and other comparable parcels. Using a map with value contours, you can value a whole city this way with surprising ease and speed. Using this method, I valued Milwaukee land in 1963 and 1967. The building-residual method nearly tripled the land values reported by the City Assessor, who was using the assessor's usual inconsistent mix of various other methods. How's that again? Did I say tripled? Yes, I really said "tripled." By his methods, buildings on the eve of demolition were carrying values higher than their sites; by the building-residual method these old buildings had no value at all, which of course is why they were being torn down. Besides depreciation and technological obsolescence, many buildings suffered severe "locational obsolescence," owing to shifting demand patterns. The land was re-usable, and had as much or more value without the extant buildings. Using the building-residual method requires no change in present laws. It is within the latitude of assessing officials, who, in turn, respond to public opinion. The conscientious citizens' move is to educate and bring pressure, just as the old single-tax campaigners like Jackson Ralston did. In the process of "losing" they won over half of what they sought, just by taking a stand and making the effort. Federal Income Taxes One of assessors' greatest problems today is the strong pressures from owners who want to allocate as much value as possible to buildings that they may depreciate for federal income tax purposes. Here is where we must study how the parts form the big picture. Here is where federal and local tax policies intersect. Some Georgists have neglected or misunderstood the income-tax treatment of land income. Let us see how this works. Congress and the IRS let one depreciate buildings, but not land, for income tax. This important distinction harks back to when the income tax was new, and Georgist Congressmen like Warren Worth Bailey, from Johnstown, PA and Henry George Jr., from Brooklyn were instrumental in shaping it. When a building is new, the depreciable value is limited to the cost of construction. The non-depreciable land is the bare land value before construction. So far, so good. Over time, however, building owners have converted this into a tax shelter scheme. Owner A, the builder, writes off the building in a few years, much less than its economic life, and sells it to B. "A" pays a tax on the excess of sales price over "basis." The basis is reduced by all depreciation taken, so any excess depreciation is "recaptured" upon sale. It is defined by Congress as a "capital gain," and given the corresponding package of tax preferences:
Thus far, any tax preference goes to A, the builder, and may be seen as a wellconsidered building incentive. Watch, however, what happens next. "A" sells to B and B depreciates the building all over again, from his purchase price. To do so, B must allocate the new "basis" - i.e., his purchase price - between depreciable building and non-depreciable land. How shall B allocate the new basis? Enter the local tax assessor. Here is where local assessment intersects with Federal income tax policy. The IRS does not try to assess land and buildings. Instead, IRS instructions tell taxpayers they may use locally assessed values to allocate basis between depreciable buildings and non-depreciable land. The IRS accepts this allocation as conclusive. As a result, local owners of income property press their assessors to allocate as much value as possible to buildings, and as little as possible to land. This does not affect their local taxes, but lowers their federal taxes. It lets them depreciate land. Local revenues are not immediately affected. Local assessors have little reason not to accommodate their constituents, local landowners, to help them depreciate land for federal and state income tax purposes. They have little reason to use the correct "building-residual'' method of allocating value, and a compelling reason to use the wrong method that understates land value. Thus they convert non-depreciable land value into depreciable building value. It is the modern version of "competitive underassessment." In the process, they also convert the local property tax from a land tax into a building tax. After a while B sells to C, who in turn sells to D, so each building is depreciated many times. So is a large part of the land under it, tame after time, although it should not be depreciated at all. This is carried so far that real estate pays no federal or state income taxes at all. The solution to this lies with the U.S. Congress. The need is to limit depreciation to one cycle only. It is a most urgent problem for both federal and local treasuries. We all have Congressmen. Write to them and raise their consciousness. They are brokers who respond to public opinion. It is we who are derelict. Priority #3. De-Balkanize Tax Enclaves A. Rich and Poor There are rich jurisdictions and poor. Professor Tideman's paper in this conference alludes to this matter in passing. Let us support his point with some numbers. In California, you might think that farm counties like Tulare have a lot more taxable value per capita than cities, but au contraire. Tulare County reports assessed values per capita of $38,100; the whole State averages $60,000 per capita. Suburban Marin County weighs in with $95,400; urban Los Angeles County has $59,000; Orange County has $74,000.
You might also think that Tulare, being rural, has a lot higher fraction of land value in its mix, but again, not so. The Land Share of Real Estate Value (LSREV) in Tulare County is 28 percent, compared to a statewide mean of 40 percent, and 47 percent in Orange County. (This datum, and others of like kind, refute the conventional belief that farm counties are heavy on land in the mix. On this last point, I must respectfully take issue with my good old friend Gene Wunderlich, whose paper at this conference suggests that farm counties have higher land fractions. I wonder if he has perhaps conflated building values with pure land values? My data, from California State Board of Equalization, show lower land fractions in real estate in the purely rural counties of the San Joaquin Valley.) Grazing and mining counties like Inyo have high values of LSREV, but they are a small share of the farm economy. (lnyo County, lightly peopled but heavily cattled, has $136,000 per capita, with very few human capita (and its cattle are exempt from the California property tax). Major farm counties with intensive farms, like those of San Joaquin Valley, have low values of LSREV. Within counties, disparities among cities and school districts are much greater. In Tulare County, one pathetic little povertyville, the City of Parlier, has just $10,000 of assessed value per capita. Here are some assessed values per capita from different California cities in the County of Los Angeles: Lynwood, $21,500; Beverly Hills, $294,000 (14 times Lynwood); City of Industry, $5,533,000 (257 times Lynwood). This is why some critics call the property tax "regressive." It has given some plausibility to the otherwise bizarre claim that switching to a sales tax is less regressive than sticking with the property tax. Within each city a property tax is progressive, but when your data meld cities like poor little Parlier and Lynwood with Beverly Hills, you sometimes find poor people paying more of their income in property taxes than rich people, and getting less for it. Switching just the local property tax to land ex buildings will do little or nothing to correct such disparities, and therefore make little progress toward overall social justice, and the wide support that will evoke. There is, in fact, a natural cap on local property tax rates imposed by local particularism: the City Council of Beverly Hills will not raise taxes in Beverly Hills for the benefit of voters in Parlier. To avoid such regressivity we must work out some formula for power equalization. The most straightforward formula is simply a statewide land tax. On this I must again applaud Dick Noyes in NH - not for what he says, but what he does. What he says is that the genius of NH is its local control of revenues; what he does is initiate bills for a statewide land tax. There are many other tax enclaves and exemptions by which much property stays off the tax rolls. I have a long list, with about 35 items. Here I'll just focus on two: timber and oil. ... Read the whole article. Mason Gaffney: The Relationship Between Property Taxation and the Concentration of Farm Land OwnershipSo, for those two reasons,
concentration of land ownership is not
only high but it has risen at a very rapid rate.
To sum up,
Conclusion: to redemocratize
farming, promote small farms and
break up big ones, raise land tax rates. Read
the whole article
Mason Gaffney: The
Property Tax is a Progressive Tax (1971)All
studies have greatly
understated the share of land in real
estate value. Some overlook it altogether. The good ones assign
it
a value, and allow for nonshifting, but the value is much too low. They
are all pre-Douglas Commission Report, and rendered obsolete by
Manvel's study of how high a share land values are.28
Manvel's study
plus my Milwaukee study plus Gustafson's California data support a
land share of 40% and up, much higher than the 15% or so used by
Musgrave et al. At present the assessed value of land is
40-50% of the total in Washington, D.C., California, and some other
jurisdictions that have updated assessments.
It is true that in most jurisdictions land is underassessed, and Musgrave's numbers were reasonable in their day as a statement of what assessors were doing. As noted, however, maladministration should be blamed on administrators, not on the property tax per se. And Musgrave omitted three important points.
Mason Gaffney: Rising Inequality and Falling Property Tax Rates Vanishing Farmers
and Unaffordable Farms
The Vanishing Middle Class; Gini Ratio The Rise of Land Quality in Vast Farms Rising Land Share and Rising Ratio of Price to Cash Flow THE LESSER IMPROVEMENT OF BIGGER FARMS National Data Concentration of irrigated land Land Concentration for Farms Ranked by Sales Lack of buildings on latifundia Lack of family labor on latifundia Comparisons Among States Lesser Improvement of Land in States with Larger Farms Urban Influence Association of Property Taxation and Land Improvement CONCLUSION It is a common belief that property tax relief is "good for farmers." It certainly raises the private share of economic rent. That in turn raises the investment grade of farmland and encourages its purchase as a store of value, a place to park slack money. This may be at odds, however, with using it as a vehicle for enterprise and an outlet for workmanship. Lower farm property taxes are associated with lower ratios of capital to land, and labor to land, both over time and among states. They are also associated with bigger mean farm size and less equal distribution of farm sizes. In the sections that follow, I first document the rise of inequality in the distribution of farmland that followed a sharp drop in farm property tax rates after 1930. Then I show, by cross-sectional analysis, a positive relationship between higher property tax rates and more intensive use of farmland, which in turn is associated with more equal distribution of farmland. Conversely, I find property tax relief associated with underuse and underimprovement of land. A priori, a tax on
buildings works to suppress building and
to penalize smaller farmers, whose building to land ratio is higher
than that of bigger farmers. The findings seem to show, therefore, a
stronger countereffect, proincentive and pro-subdivision, of the
other part of the property tax, the part based on land value.
... Now, however, 34 percent of all irrigated land is in the top bracket, farms of 2,000 acres and over. (10) Control of irrigated land means control over water. Control of water gives control over arid lands roundabout. Ownership and control based on water have become highly concentrated. For farms with irrigated land, GR = .82, (11) substantially higher than the GR of .76 for all farms. ... To sum up,
The combination means the agricultural ladder has been pulled up. Entry is nearly impossible for farmers lacking outside finance; exit and latifundiazation proceed apace. These changes accompanied and followed a 40 percent drop in farm property tax rates. ... THE LESSER IMPROVEMENT OF BIGGER FARMS A result of rising concentration is the separation of land from capital. With some exaggeration, American latifundia are now lands without buildings, but buildings cluster on smaller farms, many without enough land. This implies at least three points.
It is awkward that the 1987
Census of Agriculture defines "farm
size," and ranks farms, only by acres rather than value. ...
Concentration of irrigated land The yield per acre of most crops stays level or rises with harvested acres per farm. At the same time, sales per dollar of real estate fall somewhat. (21) The most likely reason is that the quality of harvested land rises with quantity. There is, to be sure, a trade-off between quality and quantity, but there is also a bond. Whoever can afford more can afford better. Which effect is stronger? The question must be resolved by data. ... Comparing different crops,
high values of GR go with crops
that are mostly irrigated. For example, 85 percent of tomato
acres and 14 percent of silage corn are irrigated. For tomatoes, GR =
.91; for silage corn, GR = .52.
(26)
(26) Those who find GR
index numbers too abstract will find more meaning in these raw data.
For tomatoes, the top acreage bracket contains 1.1 percent of the
farms, 45 percent of the harvested acres, and 52 percent of the
irrigated acres in tomatoes. For silage corn, the top bracket contains
1.0 percent of the farms, 11.3 percent of the harvested acres, and 26
percent of the irrigated acres in silage corn. ...
Lack of buildings on latifundia The 1940 Census of Agriculture was the last to separate $L from $B, overall. In 1940 the building share of real estate value ($B/[$L+B], or BSREV) was .69 in the lowest acreage bracket, .31 for all farms, and .12 for farms of 1,000 acres and over. (36) (36) 1940 Census of Agriculture, Vol. 3:80. An earlier insightful article on the subject is D. Weeks, "Factors Affecting Selling Prices of Land in the 11th Federal Farm Loan District," Hilgardia 3, no. 17 (1929):459-542. AELOS (1988) gives no comparable comprehensive data, but it does give two series that test the point and have the advantage of disaggregation. One is for "owner-operators" and one for "landlords with debt." For the owner-operators, ranked by acres per farm, BSREV was .63 for farms under 10 acres; .29 for all farms; and .12 for farms of 2,000 acres and over. (37) Building values are much more equally distributed among these farms than land values. ... The inverse relationship
between PTR and GR is particularly
consistent and noteworthy. ...
CONCLUSION One may at least firmly conclude that large farm units are less improved and less peopled than small and medium-sized farms. There are two possible interpretations. One is that big farms are more efficient, getting more from less, but that is refuted by their getting less output per $L. The other is that Veblen was right, many of them are oversized stores of value, held first to park slack money and only secondly to produce food and fiber, and complement the owner's workmanship. The Florida 9 [the high LSREV states] may represent a home grown rural "third world" of large, underutilized landholdings that preempt the best land and force median farmers onto small farms on low-grade land. The issue cannot be settled in a
few words, but the implications
for tax policy are the same either way. If large units are more
efficient, they can bear heavier taxes. If they are less efficient,
heavier PTRs will induce them to release surplus land for others,
which will tend at the margins to equalize factor proportions, moving
more states from the Florida toward the Wisconsin model. Read
the whole article Mason Gaffney: Sounding the Revenue Potential of Land: Fifteen Lost Elements Correcting
for
downward bias in standard data
e. Relying on the National Bureau of
Economic Research (NBER)
Many economists treat numbers from the NBER as iconic. The press routinely cites their datings of U.S. recessions and recoveries as “official.” Many writers cite Raymond Goldsmith's estimates of United States land values, dating from 1955 and 1962, as “authoritative,” because they carry the NBER imprimatur. Yet they do not bear examination, even for their times. They were generated as incidents to other work in an offhand and indefensible way. It is not easy to retrace Goldsmith's steps; one must track interlocking footnotes from several sources. At the end of the trail, however, he simply takes residential land value as 15 percent of building value (which comes to 13 percent of land and building value). The basis of this allocation is the share of land in the cost of one to four family houses insured by the Federal Housing Authority, which was about 20 percent. He does not even explain why he cut this down to 13 percent. Goldsmith then applies this basis to nonresidential real estate as well. As for corporate held lands, he enters them at book value -- an attitude that opened the door to an epidemic of corporate raiding. Goldsmith also seems to omit vacant lots and unsubdivided land. These methods are not worthy of the faith with which several economists cite the results. FHA insured houses are not typical. They tend to be new and on cheap land. Those not new are not very old -- in 1967 the median age of insured existing homes was thirteen years. To apply such data to a typical American city, most of whose dwelling units in 1965 antedated 1920, was outlandish. It is more outlandish today in 2004. FHA clientele is lower middle class, which means the land share is low, land being both a consumer luxury and a rich man's hedge, the land share rising sharply with value. The high land share in Beverly Hills, Greenwich, Belvedere, Santa Fe Springs, Palm Beach, Kenilworth, and other enclaves of wealth is missing from FHA data. The FHA is most active at the expanding fringe of cities. A basic fact of urban land economics is that the land share rises toward the center. In Manhattan, for example, the share of assessed land value has always been higher than in the other boroughs. Applying a land fraction derived from residential data to commerce and industry is not believable. The land share is highest in retailing, the more so now that retailing entails vast parking areas. Filling stations and and drive-ins of all kinds entail vast aprons for small buildings with short lives. Some retailers store their inventories outdoors: auto dealerships, lumber yards, junk yards are examples. Many wholesalers and industries do the same: tank farms, railroad yards, utility easements, industrial reserves, dumps, drive ins, salt beds, terminals, heaps of coal and salt and sulfur, and so on and on. In downtown Milwaukee, half the assessed value is land. In Manhattan, it is instructive to consider the Empire State Building. If ever a structure overdeveloped a site, the world's tallest building on a fringe site should be it. Yet in two transactions since 1950 the site was valued at one third the total. One may infer what this implies of the whole island. Anyone active in real estate would have caught Goldsmith’s error. Yet it passed muster with the NBER, his publisher the Princeton University Press, and several learned academic reviewers. This is not a measure of their general incompetence, but of the extent to which academicians have walled themselves off from anything bearing on the realities of land values and rents. Goldsmith treated land carelessly, as a trivial side-issue, and his finding was ignored by everyone except those who needed to invoke an authority to trivialize land value. Several published case studies document the higher ratio of land value to building value in non-residential uses, and central cities. Here I will merely list them.
On
the whole, Gaffney’s findings in Milwaukee bear out findings of the
other studies, although the Milwaukee patterns are more complex.
Goldsmith's transfer of the land share in a few new FHA residences to
all urban real estate is a momentous error that dominates his estimates
and destroys any value they might have.
Mason Gaffney: The Taxable
Capacity of LandAnother Goldsmith error is to exclude subsoil assets. In cities overlying oil pools, like Huntington Beach, that would make a big difference. In most cities that may not matter, but is symptomatic of how insouciantly Goldsmith handled this whole matter of land values. .... The Land Fraction of Real Estate Value (LFREV) is much higher than standard modern sources show. On most assessment rolls the value of old “junker” buildings, on the eve of demolition, is listed as higher than the land under them. This betrays the erroneous use of the “land-residual” method of separating land from building values. It should be obvious that the old junker has no residual value: that is why it is being junked. Junking is continuous in enclaves of high value like Kenilworth, Illinois, or Beverly Hills, California. “Locational obsolescence” is the key concept. The high and growing value of the underlying site cannibalizes the residual building value. Read the whole article The question I am
assigned is whether the taxable
capacity of land without buildings is up to the job of financing
cities, counties, and schools. Will the revenue be enough? The answer
is "yes."
The universal state and local revenue problem today is whether we must cap tax rates to avoid driving business away. It is exemplified by Governor Pete Wilson of the suffering State of California. He keeps repeating we must make a hard choice: cut taxes and public services, or drive out business and jobs. (When a public figure gives you two choices you know they're both bad, and he wants one of them.) The unique, remarkable quality of a property tax based on land ex buildings is that you may raise the rate with no fear of driving away business, construction, people, jobs, or capital! You certainly will not drive away the land. However high the tax rate, not one square foot of it will put on a track shoe and hop out of town. The only bad thing to say about this tax's incentive effects is that it stimulates revitalization, and makes jobs. If some people think that is bad, maybe this attitude is the problem. ... "Hold on again," I have heard, "how much revenue can land yield by itself?" It is my job to address that. I assure you it can yield more than local governments need. I have already pointed out you can raise the rate to any level without fear of driving away jobs, capital, people, or building. That is a remarkable quality in a tax, especially one as progressive as the land tax. I will also support the point in several other ways. The taxable capacity of land is camouflaged in our times by a consistent modern tendency to underassess it, relative to buildings. There are several studies in point. The most general one is the quinquennial Report of the U.S. Census of Governments. It actually understates the tendency a lot, by omitting the class of land most underassessed, that is, raw acreage in and near cities. There is great latitude in the assessment process. This latitude is now used to lower the fraction of the property tax base that is listed as land value, and raise the fraction that is listed as building value. It could just as well be used the other way, and used to be in many cities, whenever assessors were getting that message through the election returns. This would have roughly the same effect as going to a two-rate system on a more formal basis -- except, obviously, that the formal basis is more permanent, reliable, and generally respectable. I have here data ... I worked up in Milwaukee from 1969 data indicating that, if land were assessed correctly, the land fraction of the real estate tax base would be over twice what the City Assessor reported. His fraction was 31%; it should have been 70%. How does one come to so startling a finding? Wisconsin is not a backward state. It prides itself on the high quality of its public administration. What I did was study sites on the eve of demolition. When you buy an old junker to tear down and replace with a new building, you (the market) are obviously recognizing that the building has no residual value. All the value is then in the land. However, in Milwaukee in 1969 the Assessor was saying the building was worth about three times as much as the land, just before tear-down. That is a good way to measure to what extent land is underassessed. Try that in Manhattan. When the visitor first gapes at its skyline from afar, it looks like one big modern high-rise. If you poke around on foot much, though, you soon realize those are the exception. Most of the lots are covered with obsolete junk, some of it tumbledown, commanding rents mainly for their location value. Check the Empire State Building. Old as it is, it is still nearly the tallest building in the world. As to its site, it is in a so-so reach of 5th Avenue (34th Street), many blocks from the 100% location (57th Street, I would guess). Even so, when the site and the building sold in separate transactions a few years ago, the site represented 1/3 of the total value. What does that say about the land fraction on neighboring parcels, covered only with the remains of ordinary old structures? What does that say about the land fraction nearer the 100% location? ... retailing has a higher land fraction than any other major land use (except vacant, golf courses, cemeteries, parking lots, etc.). That is because location is more critical to retailers than other businesses. You can tell this by their high rate of tear-downs and remodeling. ... "Hold on once more," I
hear, "not so fast, how about the
mansions of rich people?" Another fair question: how, indeed, can
you justify exempting them from taxation? The answer may astonish
you. Here are some data from British Columbia that speak to the
point. They are from the area around Vancouver (The "Lower Mainland")
and the southern part of Vancouver Island, around Victoria, where
over half the people in the province live. B.C. practices high
quality professional assessment; data from its rolls are quite
reliable, as such things go.
Cities and districts around Vancouver and Victoria are ranked, in Table 1, according to the land value per property (single-family residences). These range from nearly $700,000 each in the "University Endowment Lands" district (very posh), to around $40,000 each in the "Victoria Rural" district (more modest). The last column, LSREV (Land Share of Real Estate Value), shows the land value (L) as a share of the total value (B+L). These shares range from a high
of 80% on the University
Endowment Lands (UEL) down to 38% in Colwood (the lowest), and
39% in Victoria Rural (next to lowest). In between, the numbers
follow the trend closely. The dearer the land parcels, the higher is
the "land fraction" (the fraction of total real estate value that is
land value). From such data, one might formulate a rule along the
lines that "the lot value increases with the square of the house
value." It is hard to be so precise, and not necessary. The relevant
rule we need here is just that people's house values are more alike
than their lot values. It is
lot value, more than house value, that
divides the rich from the poor.
The average house (ex land) in the posh UEL jurisdiction is worth 2.8 times the average in the Victoria Rural jurisdiction ($173.1/$61.9). The average land parcel (ex building) in the UEL is worth 17.5 times the average in the Victoria Rural jurisdiction ($692.5/$39.6). Now do us both a favor, please. Pause and savor that comparison. Let it linger, as though you were testing a slow sip of wine from Fredonia's famous grapes. Roll it on your tongue, mull sensually over its aroma and bouquet, and, getting back to business, mull cerebrally over its full import. The house that shelters the very rich family is worth 2.8 times the house of the modest family; but the land under the house of the very rich is worth 17.5 times the land of the modest. Seventeen and one half times as much! Again, it is lot value, more than building value, that divides the rich from the poor. Seldom will you find an economic rule more strongly supported by data. It's just a matter of presenting the data so as to test and bring out the rule. An American counterpart of Vancouver's "University Endowment Lands" is Beverly Hills, California, where land value composes some 80% of residential values, and the mean parcel is worth something like a million dollars. Beverly Hills, with its great wealth and mansions, is known as "Tear-down City." Every year many a grand old palace that once sheltered some renowned matinee idol, and rang to scandalous parties, is torn down to salvage its site for the next, grander one. In a land boom, such as crested in 1989, half the city goes to the brink of demolition and replacement. What do those data tell us? The rich as a rule do not live next to the poor. Rather, they cluster in neighborhoods with much higher lot values. The poor seek shelter first, and go where it is affordable. The rich put a high premium on location, neighborhood, views, and grounds, resulting in higher land fractions in their real estate. Mansions are visible evidences of wealth, impressing viewers powerfully; land values are invisible. The perceptual bias is to underrate the invisible, if you are not regularly in the real estate market. In the numbers, however, land and buildings are equally visible, and their message is clear. It is land value more than house value that divides the rich from the poor. Ergo, a tax shift from buildings to land is a shift from the poor to the rich, even though the houses of the rich are exempted. It makes the property tax more progressive. ... Another attractive feature of
land taxation is its interesting positive effect on the economic base
of a city. It strengthens it by its tendency to hit absentee owners
harder than resident owners. The land fraction in real estate is
generally highest in the CBD of any city, so that is a favorite place
for absentees to buy and hold. They like the steady income, and the
"trophy" quality. The surplus in real estate is what attracts outside
buyers, and land is what yields the surplus. About 2/3 of downtown Los
Angeles is owned by non-resident aliens, for example. In a more
workaday city, Milwaukee, the absentee owners consist of former
residents, or their heirs, who grew too rich to abide the harsh winters.
I once wrote a long
chapter on this subject, "The
Adequacy of Land as a Tax Base" (Gaffney, 1970). It came out
of two years of research, and is too long even to summarize now. I am
delivering it to Pat Salkin, however, and hope she may add it to the
record of this conference. I also attach a short bibliography of
articles that expand on topics covered above, for whoever is moved to
study more on this fascinating subject. I hope you think it as
important as I do. Please pick up this ball and run with it.
Nobody said it was going to be easy. There are some bone-crushing
line-backers out there, like Greed, Ignorance, Myopia, and Inertia.
So much the more credit to you when you cross the line: your fans
will love you for a touchdown. They really need a lift; they've
waited so long! Read the whole article
Mason Gaffney: Cannan's Law Differences among city tax bases are actually, however, extreme. One desperate little farm town in Fresno County, Parlier, has just $10,000 of assessed value per head. Here are some assessed values per head from different California cities in The County of Los Angeles:
Destitute Slab City (Unincorp.) in Riverside County has no land values at all. (It is an abandoned military base between a bombing range and the fragrant southern end of the Salton Sea, with rotting algae and dying fish.) One would not expect much support in The City of Industry for a proposal to share land as common property with the transients who park in Slab City, which has no public services except a species of public schooling, nor would we expect the transients to stay in or return to Slab City if they could park on the streets of Beverly Hills, camp in its parks, attend its schools, and beg or "work for food" on Rodeo Drive. This is why some critics have called the property tax "regressive." Balkanization of the property tax gives some plausibility to the otherwise bizarre claim that switching to a sales tax is less regressive than sticking with a property tax. Within each city the property tax is progressive, but when your data meld cities like poor little Parlier and Lynwood with Beverly Hills you sometimes find poor people paying more of their income in property taxes than rich people, and getting less for it. Then there are resource tax enclaves. Hydrocarbons and hardrock minerals are unevenly distributed, geographically. McLure tells us that the Siberian oblast of Tyumen, with 2% of Russia's people, yields 65% of Russia's oil. There are similar regional disparities worldwide. Rich farm counties are not, generally, resource tax-enclaves (except by comparison with poor farm counties). The "rural" counties today with high values per head are resort counties, like Vilas and Walworth in Wisconsin, with their prized lake frontages; or "exurban" counties like Napa in California; or Berkshire in Massachusetts. In California, you might think that fruitful farming counties like Tulare have a lot more taxable real estate value per head than urban ones. Such is a durable belief, but it is wrong.
You might also think that Tulare, being rural, has a lot higher fraction of land value in its mix, but again, not so. The Land Share of Real Estate Value (LSREV) in Tulare County is 28%, compared to a statewide mean of 40%, and 47% in Orange County. Grazing and mining counties like Inyo have high values of LSREV, but they are a small share of the farm economy. Counties with intensive working farms, like those of the San Joaquin Valley, have low values of LSREV.... read the whole article
Bill Batt: Comment on Parts of the NYS Legislative Tax Study Commission's 1985 study “Who Pays New York Taxes?”
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